Thames Hub airport plan ( London Thamesport ??? )

New runways WILL have to be built in the South East of England warns Britain's airports tsar

• Sir Howard Davies says expanding Manchester and Birmingham not option
• Boosts chances of new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick or an Estuary Airport

New runways will have to be built in the South East of England if the UK is to avoid aviation gridlock, Britain’s airports ‘tsar’ said today.

That is the provisional conclusion of Sir Howard Davies’ investigation into solving the problem of UK’s bursting airport capacity.

His findings boost the chances of controversial new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, and keep afloat the idea of a Boris Island in the Thames Estuary.

But simply expanding regional airports such as Birmingham and Manchester would not solve the problem, he said in a blow to regional expansion.

Problem: Sir Howard Davies has said expanding regional airports such as Birmingham and Manchester would not solve the problem of aviation capacity

However Sir Howard held back for now on ruling on his ‘preferred option’ for South East airport expansion.

Fighting to win his support are plans for a third and even a  fourth runway at Heathrow, a brand new ‘Boris island’ in the Thames estuary – the two competing and opposing  ‘hub’ airport options -  and extra runways at Gatwick and Stansted.

Sir Howard, who chairs the Government’s Airports Commission which will recommend to ministers where new runways should be built  was giving his  ‘emerging thinking’ in a speech after taking evidence from interested parties over the Summer. 

Speaking in London he said: ‘Our provisional conclusion is that we will need some net additional runway capacity in the South East of England in the coming decades.’

And he stressed that to rely ‘only on runways currently in operation’ would mean a poorer service for passengers, for connections to other airports at home and abroad, could damage the economy.

He added that in environmental terms  it ‘would also almost certainly not be the best solution in terms of minimising the overall carbon impact of flights and travel to and from airports’. 

Sir Howard said pressure on the UK’s busiest airports is likely to continue to grow ‘even if we take a more conservative view of future aviation demand than the DfT has in the past.’

New favourite idea: Boris has backed the four-runway 'Foster Island' (pictured) in the Thames Estuary airport, which would be capable of handling up to 180million passengers a year on the Isle of Grain in Kent

Elaborate plan: The Isle of Grain's proposed international railway station, which would include a service to Waterloo in 26 minutes

AIRPORT EXPANSION: THE OPTIONS

HEATHROW: Heathrow airport chiefs have published three options for a controversial new third runway to double passenger numbers and ‘win the race’ to be Europe’s main international airline hub. But they also spelled out the prospect of fourth runway built after 2040. 

Residents reacted with fury to the blueprint that would mean a sixth terminal T6 at Heathrow, and a seventh likely to follow, threatening action in the High Court to halt it.

Each of the three third-runway Heathrow options will boost annual flights from 480,000 to 740,000 a year  – more in keeping with its international rivals - doubling passenger numbers from 70million to 130million a year.

'FOSTER ISLAND': The inner estuary site on Kent's Isle of Grain is close enough to London to provide smooth and fast access by public transport, yet ideally located so as to allow take-off and landing over water and so impact on as small a population as possible.

'BORIS ISLAND': An airport on an artificial island off the Kent coast would remove all problems of noise pollution and give the airport the freedom to operate in whatever way it needed in order to maximise the UK’s connectivity and economic benefits.

STANSTED EXPANSION: Developing a major four-runway airport at Stansted would have the attraction of building on existing infrastructure and being sited in a relatively sparsely populated region.

GATWICK EXPANSION: Rival Gatwick has unveiled its own controversial plans for a £9billion  second runway at Gatwick that could treble passenger numbers to nearly 90million a year. But it too has flown into turbulence from residents and environmental groups. Gatwick bosses said a new runway in West Sussex, positioned to the south of the current site, could be open in 2025 and could almost treble passenger numbers but be less expensive and less noisy than an extra runway at Heathrow. It would be part of a ‘constellation’ of three main airports around London – instead of one major Heathrow ‘hub’.

This will lead to overcrowding at airports in the south east of England specifically.

More importantly, this aviation gridlock will  happen even if demand for flights is less than expected because of pressures from the Government’s legally enforced ‘green’ climate change objectives. 

Sir Howard said it was difficult to see how the market alone could resolve the ‘imbalance’ between demand and capacity in the South East of England.

And simply sending for flights to the regions would not be enough: ‘Regional airports are already serving their local markets effectively but it is difficult to see how they can absorb all the excess demand. The tools available to Government to influence the location of flights are also very limited.’

So taken together the taken together he concluded that such consideration ‘point to the need for new runway infrastructure in the south east of England in the coming decades’.

Sir Howard said in his speech: ‘Our provisional conclusion is that we will need some net additional runway capacity in the South East of England in the coming decades.

‘To rely only on runways currently in operation would be likely to produce a distinctly sub-optimal solution for passengers, connectivity and the economy and would also almost certainly not be the best solution in terms of minimising the overall carbon impact of flights and travel to and from airports. ‘

He added: ‘A mechanism for managing the carbon impacts of aviation will be needed if the UK is to achieve its statutory carbon targets – just as it will in other countries. This is the case whether new runway capacity is provided in the South East or not.’

He added: ‘I would be interested in comments on the analysis I have set out today.’

The Commission  is seeking responses on the emerging thinking and analysis set out in the speech by  October 31.

The Airports Commission was launched in November  last year but its final recommendations will not be implemented – if at all – until after the next General Election.