You need real dockers to run a Port - automation is expensive a kills jobs
With more automation coming to ports around the world, marine terminal operators need to get aggressive or risk losing opportunities to those outside the maritime industry, futurist Gerd Leonhard said Tuesday.
"There will be faster technological change in the next 20 years than in the past 300 years," Leonhard, CEO of the Futures Agency and author, told attendees of the 29th International Association of Ports and Harbors Conference in Hamburg. "Everything that can be automated will be automated."
The world’s first fully-automated container terminal is up and running in Rotterdam. This has increased pressure on international competitors to follow suit. This pressure is most likely to grow in the wake of lost productivity during labor negotiations on the U.S. West Coast.
"If you do not get ahead of the curve in the digital revolution, someone from outside the ports sector who is better qualified will take those parts of the business from you," he said, "The big mistake is to overinvest in what is, rather than what might be."
The motivation for digital upstarts to try and enter into the port business is clear, as automating container facilities can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and many see automation as inevitable.
"The future for transport companies will be about managing interdependence rather than competing with each other," said Leonhard. He said this is because technological change will also propel collaboration andinterconnectivity.
Leonhard’s words parallel with a portion of Karl Gernandt’s keynote speech at JOC.com’s 2015 TPM Conference. Gernandt said that carriers and NVOs should collaboratively leverage their comparative advantages in order to increase profits. He suggested a major reason for such cooperation is the rise of disruptive technologies and firms that have ravaged other industries.
The first afternoon session of the conference was largely devoted to the issue of expanding box ship sizes, which are another factor in the expansion of port automation. This is because automated operations can keep an efficient tempo, which is necessary to unload mega-ships in a timely manner and reduce congestion caused by such large cargo loads.
Jost Bergmann, a DNV GL container ship specialist, pointed out that recent increases in the size of the largest box ships showed diminishing returns, suggesting the vessels might not get much bigger.
The only possible way to overcome these shrinking returns would be a reliance on automation.
Benjamin Lai, managing director of DaChan Bay Terminal in the Pearl River Delta, commented on the trend's implications for crane productivity. Lifts per hour decline with larger ships due to the greater distances involved, he said.
"We need to work closer with our shipping lines to improve productivity," said Lai.
Lai’s comments illustrate that automation is not a cure all for port productivity and that infrastructure challenges have also arisen from the increased utilization of mega-ships. Ports around the world have undertaken expensive dredging operations and terminal upgrades in an effort to remain viable stops for these vessels.
A version of this story was originally published on IHS Maritime 360, a sister product of JOC.com within IHS Maritime & Trade.
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